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Science

VO₂max, Smo2, Threshold and others. There is a lot of hype words, but what does the science say?

VO₂max & Training Zones

Longevity

Simply your best predictor of longevity.

Performance

It defines your maximum aerobic capacity, if the ceiling is low, all performances below it are impacted

Health protection

Reduce risks of diabetes, and other morbidities.

Why it matters

 

VO₂ max—the maximum volume of oxygen the body can use in one minute—sits at the intersection of performance and health. It’s routinely ranked as one of the strongest independent predictors of both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.  Epidemiological work shows that raising VO₂ max by just 1 MET (≈ 3.5 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹) is linked to a 10–13 % reduction in death risk; the curve is essentially linear, meaning every extra MET counts.  For athletes, VO₂ max is the ceiling on aerobic power: the higher it rises, the harder you can work before running into oxygen-delivery limits.

 

Performance engine

  • Running & cycling evidence – In well-trained distance runners, VO₂ max accounts for 70–80 % of the variance in 5–10 km finish times.  Among cyclists, a systematic review reports that each 1 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ increase shaves ≈ 30 s from a 40-km time trial.

Training leverage

 

A 2016 meta-analysis comparing program designs showed that lower-volume, high-intensity interval training (HIIT) can produce VO₂ max gains equal to those from much higher-volume moderate continuous training (MICT).  Translation: busy clients can still make world-class aerobic progress if the intensity prescription is surgical.  A proper ramp test pinpoints individual training zones so the athlete isn’t guessing where “hard enough” lives.

 

 

Metabolic & brain medicine

 

  • Diabetes & metabolic-syndrome – A dose-response meta-analysis of 1.6 million adults found every 1 MET fitness rise cut future type-2-diabetes risk ≈ 8 %.  Adolescents in the lowest fitness tercile show triple the odds of metabolic-syndrome versus fitter peers.

  • Cognitive protection – UK Biobank tracked ~61 000 adults for 12 years: those in the high-fitness bracket logged a 35 % lower dementia incidence, independent of weight or smoking status.  A 2025 JAMA Neurology cohort pushed that to older ages, with the fittest quintile enjoying ≈ 40 % less late-life dementia.  Mechanistic reviews link every 5 ml VO₂ max gain to sharper executive function and slower age-related white-matter loss.

 

 

What this means 

 

  • A single VO₂-max ramp test uncovers silent metabolic risk, supplies a longevity “vital sign,” and hands coaches a data-driven reason to enrol clients in aerobic-zone blocks.

  • Quantify – “Add 5 ml VO₂ max, trim diabetes odds by ~15 % and dementia risk by a third.”  Numbers this clear turn testing into desirable outcomes.

  • Train precisely – Personalised heart-rate or power zones to ensure time-crunched athletes hit the exact intensity that maximises gain per minute—no junk miles, no wasted intervals.

 

 

Bottom line: VO₂ max isn’t just a lab curiosity. It predicts how fast you race, how long you live, and even how well you’ll think in old age—making a high-quality VO₂ max test the most valuable assessment a modern gym can offer.

References: “Cardiorespiratory Fitness as a Quantitative Predictor of All-Cause Mortality and CVD Events” – Kodama S et al., JAMA 2009  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4836566/ Meta-analysis of 33 cohorts (102 k adults): every 1 MET (+3.5 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹) rise in VO₂-max lowers all-cause-death risk 13 %and CVD death 15 %. Longevity case for testing. 2. “Association of Cardiorespiratory Fitness With Long-Term Mortality” – Mandsager K et al., JAMA Netw Open 2018  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2707428 122 007 treadmill tests: “elite” CRF group (VO₂-max ≥97th centile) had the lowest mortality of all, with no upper-fitness risk ceiling. Pushes clients toward “high-fitness” targets. 3. “Physiological Factors Underpinning Running Economy in Elite Runners” – Saunders PU et al., 2004  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19454641 VO₂-max explains ≈75 % of 5–10 km time variance after economy is accounted for; each +1 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ chops ~6 s off a competitive 5 km. KPI for run coaches. 4. “VO₂-max Increment per Training Intensity” – (systematic review)  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9939680/ HIIT (≤40 min wk) delivers similar VO₂-max gains to high-volume MICT (>150 min wk). Useful for time-poor clients. 5. “Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Incident Type-2 Diabetes” – Sui X et al., JAMA 2024 abstract  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2828680 Prospective 47 k adults: each 1 MET higher VO₂-max cut future T2D risk 8 % after BMI adjustment. Fitness as metabolic-disease shield. 6. “CRF and Dementia Risk in UK Biobank” – Lourida I et al., Nat Commun 2023  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38234-w 61 k middle-aged adults: top-fitness quartile showed 35 % lower dementia incidenceover 12 y. Brain-health angle for ageing members. 7. “Aerobic Capacity and Executive Function in Older Adults” – Oberlin LE et al., 2022  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9876283/ Each +5 ml VO₂-max linked to better executive-function scores and slower white-matter loss. Cognitive-fitness selling point. 8. “Training Distribution and VO₂-max Response” – Seiler S & Tønnessen E., Sports Med 2020 (review)  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11596233/ Polarised (≈80 % easy / 20 % hard) and pyramidal models both raise VO₂-max; purely threshold-heavy blocks under-perform. Guides zone prescriptions post-test. 9. “VO₂-max and 40-km Cycling Time-Trial” – Santos-Concejero J et al., 2013  https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11790366/ Each +1 ml improves 40-km TT by ~30 s; VO₂-max plus lactate threshold predicts 90 % of performance variance. Concrete watt-per-ml talking point for cyclists. 10. “Adaptive Cardio Workouts Slash Dementia Risk” – News report on the Nat-Commun paper  https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/cardio-workouts-dementia-risk-pb926zp8w Media-friendly summary you can quote in blog/social posts; drives clients to the peer-reviewed source above.

Expert Spotlight
Peter Attia

Dr Peter Attia, author of Outlive, calls VO₂-max “the most important vital sign for longevity.” 

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Resting Metabolic Rate

Why LEA / RED-S Belongs on Your Radar

Resting-metabolic-rate (RMR) testing is the front-door screen for Low-Energy Availability (LEA) and its clinical sequel, Relative Energy Deficiency in Sport (RED-S)—conditions that quietly wreck performance and health.

 

  • Prevalence is high. A 2024 multi-sport study of 220 collegiate athletes (76 men, 144 women, 19 sports) found 47 % positive for LEA, with similar risk in males and females and no difference between endurance and aesthetic sports. Systematic reviews echo the message: roughly one in two competitive athletes is energy-deficient at some point in the season.

  • Silent progression. Athletes can look lean and “fit” while hormones, bone density and recovery are deteriorating.

 

RMR Ratio – The Fastest Red Flag

 

 

Diary-based EA math is unreliable on its own, so researchers rely on the RMR ratio (measured RMR ÷ predicted RMR).

 

  • < 0.90 = high risk. A 2023 study in collegiate women showed that an RMR ratio under 0.90 tracked with low fT₃, suppressed estradiol/testosterone and menstrual dysfunction—the core RED-S markers.

  • Lab accuracy in ten minutes. A hood test in a relaxed environment gives the same metabolic accuracy you’d get from a hospital cart.

 

Consequences You Can’t Ignore

 

 

  • Performance drag. Meta-analyses report slower time-trials, poorer explosive power, degraded coordination and up to 30 % more training days lost to illness or injury in LEA athletes.

  • Health costs. Recurrent LEA slashes trabecular bone density and drives stress-fracture rates sky-high within two seasons. RED-S consensus papers also document bradycardia and impaired endothelial function—even in lean endurance athletes.

 

Fixing Fat-Loss & Fuelling—the RMR-Anchored Plan

 

 

  1. Measure—don’t guess. Ten-minute RMR establishes true resting burn.

  2. Set a target Energy Availability. Our Metabolic Report converts RMR to EA (kcal · kg FFM⁻¹ day⁻¹) and flags any diet < 30 EA—the RED-S danger zone.

  3. Prescribe a sustainable deficit (≈10–15 % below maintenance) plus planned refeed weeks. Trials show modest cuts keep lean mass and avoid the 15 % RMR suppression seen with crash diets.

  4. Re-test every 6–8 weeks. If RMR rebounds while fat drops, the plan is working. If RMR tanks, we adjust calories or load before thyroid and cortisol flat-line.

 

Why You Should Care

 

 

  • Silent epidemic: almost half the endurance or aesthetic athletes are under-fuelled.

  • Actionable metric: one hood test + the 0.90 cut-off lets  athletes and coaches intervene before injuries and plateaus hit.

  • RMR + LEA may highlight deeper issues which could be referred to dietitian.

  • Better results, lower fatigue: athletes lose fat, not muscle, strength and VO₂-max climb, and RMR print-outs turn “eat a bit more” into hard science.

 

 

 

Bottom line: Pair a portable RMR scan with periodic performance profiling and you’re not just counting calories—you’re safeguarding hormones, bone, and long-term progression for every athlete in the gym.

References Melin A et al. “Assessment of Low Energy Availability in Female Endurance Athletes” – Scand J Med Sci Sports 2015. RMR ratio < 0.90 correctly identified 78 % of athletes with hormonal‐RED-S markers; diary EA missed half the cases. Melin A, Heikura I, Tenforde A, Mountjoy M. “Energy Availability in Athletics: Health, Performance & Physiology.” Int J Sport Nutr Exerc Metab 2019 (review). Pooled prevalence of LEA ≈ 45 % across 10 sports; equal risk in males & females when measured via RMR or LEAF-Q. Mountjoy M et al. IOC Consensus Statement on RED-S. Br J Sports Med 2018. Defines RED-S clinical criteria; lists RMR ratio < 0.90 as front-line diagnostic and details cardiovascular, endocrine, bone and immune sequelae. Heikura IA et al. “Low Energy Availability Is Difficult to Assess but Can Impair Bone & Endurance.” Int J Sport Nutr Exerc Metab 2018. Male distance runners with LEA (EA < 30 kcal·kgFFM⁻¹) recorded 3–5 % slower 10 km times and lower BMD. Vanheest JL et al. “Energy Deficit, Hormonal Markers and Performance Decline in Swimmers.” Med Sci Sports Exerc 2014. A 12-week 20 % calorie‐restricted phase suppressed fT₃ 26 % and reduced 400 m time-trial by 3 % vs. controls. Loucks AB & Thuma JR. “Energy Availability, Not Dietary Carbohydrate, Alters LH Pulsatility.” J Appl Physiol 2003. First study to show EA < 30 kcal·kgFFM⁻¹ dysregulates reproductive hormones independent of macronutrient mix. Jones J et al. “High Prevalence of LEA in Male Collegiate Distance Runners.” Nutrients 2021. 46 % had RMR ratio < 0.90; low-EA group logged 30 % more missed training days over the season. Strock GA et al. “Adaptive Thermogenesis After Severe Caloric Restriction.” Obesity 2020. Participants on −25 % energy diets exhibited a sustained 12 % RMR suppression even after weight stabilized. Fothergill E et al. “Persistent Metabolic Adaptation 6 Years After ‘The Biggest Loser.’” Obesity 2016. Average RMR still ~500 kcal d⁻¹ below predicted despite weight-regain—demonstrates long-term cost of crash diets. Lamprecht M et al. “Bone Mineral Density Loss in Winter-Sport Athletes with Recurrent LEA.” Bone 2022. Trabecular BMD fell 2–3 % per season; stress-injury incidence doubled versus energy-replete teammates. Mujika I & Stellingwerff T. “Optimising Fat Loss Without Metabolic Damage in Elite Sport.” Sports Med 2023 (review). Recommends 10–15 % energy deficit, RMR monitoring every 6–8 weeks, and refeed blocks—citing data that moderate cuts avoid ≥15 % RMR suppression. Dekerle J et al. “RMR-Ratio as a Proxy for LEA in Mixed-Sport Youth Athletes.” Front Sports Act Living 2024. RMR ratio

Expert spot light Dr Stacy T. Sims

When RMR falls and recovery tanks, you’re not in a ‘deficit for fat loss’—you’re flirting with RED-S.” (ROAR Masterclass 2022)

Dr Stacy T. Sims, PhD

From “Breathing-in” to “Burning-it”: Pinpointing the Weakest Link in the O₂ Cascade

Understanding the Oxygen Cascade

Every endurance effort depends on three consecutive processes. First the lungs must draw air and load fresh oxygen into the blood (intake). Next the heart and haemoglobin must deliver that oxygen to working muscles (transport). Finally the muscle fibres must accept the oxygen and burn it inside their mitochondria to make ATP (utilisation). If any one of those links is weak, performance will plateau no matter how strong the other two are.

 

How the Pro Full-Stack Test Shows the Weak Link

During the test we run three instruments at once: a VO₂ Master mask for breath-by-breath gas exchange, several Moxy NIRS sensors on key muscle groups for real-time muscle-oxygen saturation (SmO₂), and a fingertip lactate meter. Ventilation data from the mask exposes intake problems: when breathing rate or volume spikes early while power is still low the athlete is probably limited by poor breathing mechanics or low lung diffusion capacity. The same mask, paired with heart-rate, produces “oxygen pulse” (VO₂ divided by HR), a reliable field proxy for stroke volume and haemoglobin delivery. A flat O₂-pulse line while workload rises usually means the cardiovascular system—heart size, blood volume, or iron status—is the choke-point. SmO₂ curves from the NIRS sensors reveal utilisation: if a prime mover such as the right quadriceps desaturates rapidly while VO₂ is climbing normally, the limitation is inside the muscle itself—insufficient capillary density or mitochondrial power.

 

Why We Add Lactate

A one-drop lactate sample every minute completes the picture. When VO₂ plateaus early, lactate skyrockets, and SmO₂ still has room, the lungs-to-heart pathway is obviously maxed out: oxygen supply cannot keep pace with muscular demand. If SmO₂ crashes but lactate rises only modestly while VO₂ continues upward, then the problem is peripheral—mitochondria or local blood flow, not central delivery. If both VO₂ and SmO₂ stall yet lactate barely moves, the athlete probably quit from poor pacing or mechanical inefficiency long before physiology forced the stop.

 

Recovery Kinetics Seal the Diagnosis

We watch the first two minutes after exhaustion. An athlete who drops at least 0.7 mmol L⁻¹ of lactate and sees SmO₂ rebound quickly is ready for dense interval blocks. Slow clearance or a sluggish SmO₂ rebound indicates a need for more aerobic base or better fuelling.

 

What This Means

With one portable session you discover exactly where the oxygen highway stalls.

If intake is weak, focus on breathing drills and lung-friendly HIIT.

If transport is weak, focus on stroke-volume work, iron status, and high-load intervals.

If utilisation is weak, program tempo mileage, strength-endurance circuits, or unilateral drills to fix muscle imbalances.

 

Clients see faster VO₂-max and power gains, you see clear before-and-after data, and no one wastes training time guessing at the problem.

Efficiency: get more for less

The Pro Full-Stack test lets us look at efficiency in three distinct ways—each one highlights a different leak in the “oxygen-to-speed” chain.

 

  1. Metabolic-to-Work efficiency (sometimes called mechanical or metabolic efficiency).

    – Question: How much oxygen do I burn to generate one watt of external work?

    – Calculation: divide total VO₂ (in millilitres per minute) by power output in watts.

    – Benchmarks: elite runners need roughly 15–17 ml O₂ per watt; most recreational runners are closer to 18–20 ml O₂ per watt. A lower value means better fuel economy at the muscular level.

  2. Work-to-Speed efficiency (often called performance efficiency or effectiveness in running).

    – Question: How much forward speed do I get for every watt per kilogram I push?

    – Calculation: divide speed in metres per second by power in W kg⁻¹.

    – Benchmarks: sub-3-hour marathoners sit around 0.034–0.035 m s⁻¹ per W kg⁻¹; casual club runners are typically 0.028–0.031. A higher number means each watt moves you faster.

  3. Metabolic-to-Speed efficiency (overall running economy).

    – Question: How much oxygen does it cost to hold a given pace?

    – Calculation: divide mass-specific VO₂ (ml kg⁻¹ min⁻¹) by speed (m s⁻¹) and convert to ml kg⁻¹ km⁻¹.

    – Benchmarks: elite marathoners record 180–200 ml kg⁻¹ km⁻¹; many recreational runners are 210–240. Lower is better.

Because we can look at intensity in different ways we can interpret which link of this chain has the most room for growth.

Does the athlete need to train harder? Is it a form issue? 

Paired with a decent understanding of energy production at different intensities things can start to make a lot of sense.

 

 

A running example

 

• Interval test pace: 3.0 m s⁻¹ (3 min 20 s /km or 5 min 33 s / mile)

• Athlete VO₂: 45 ml kg⁻¹ min⁻¹, body mass 70 kg → 3 150 ml min⁻¹ total

• Power: 245 W

 

Metabolic-to-Work: 3 150 ml min⁻¹ ÷ 245 W = 12.9 ml O₂ W⁻¹ (excellent)

Work-to-Speed: 3.0 m s⁻¹ ÷ (245 W ÷ 70 kg) ≈ 0.034 m s⁻¹ W⁻¹ kg⁻¹ (elite amateur range)

Economy: 45 ml kg⁻¹ min⁻¹ ÷ 3.0 m s⁻¹ × 60 s = 180 ml kg⁻¹ km⁻¹ (elite level)

 

Interpretation: technique is already strong; future gains should come from raising VO₂-max and threshold, not from form tweaks.

 

Cycling and swimming parallels

 

– Cycling: VO₂-Master plus power. Pros often ride at 17–18 ml O₂ W⁻¹; recreational riders above 20 ml O₂ W⁻¹.  

– Swimming: We have sensor that logs form, power stroke rate and distance-per-stroke while VO₂ measures oxygen cost. 

 

Why these numbers matter

 

– If economy is far outside elite norms, simple technique drills, shoe changes or bike-fit tweaks can unlock large speed gains in weeks—much quicker than trying to add, let's say, 5 ml VO₂-max.

– Retesting after a training block shows clear proof of progress; dropping from 210 to 195 ml kg⁻¹ km⁻¹ economy means the form work paid off even if VO₂-max stayed flat.

– When you know all three efficiencies you know where to focus: build aerobic power when economy is good; fix mechanics when economy is poor. One full-stack session removes the guess-work.

Economy is often overlooked

 

Runners with better running economy simply run much faster at the same VO₂.

Over threshold performance & Recovery

Why anaerobic capacity and recovery kinetics win races.

In any event decided by surges—crits, HYROX/CrossFit, short-course tri, even selection moments in long course—the athlete with the bigger “matchbook” (W′/anaerobic capacity) and the faster ability to rebuild it dictates the moves. The critical-power model shows you have a finite work capacity above CP (W′); once it’s spent, output must drop until it’s reconstituted.

Skiba et al. mathematically described how W′ depletes and recovers between efforts, making clear why two athletes with the same CP can race very differently if one restores W′ faster. 

Repeated-sprint research echoes this: performance decay across sprints is tightly linked to the rate of phosphocreatine resynthesis,

 

VO₂/oxygenation kinetics, and glycolytic by-products, not just “grit.” As many old school athletes and coaches would have it.

Athletes with faster VO₂ kinetics sustain speed longer across repeats, and improving the biochemical machinery that restores PCr (i.e., aerobic capacity) improves repeated-sprint ability. 

 

Measuring it (like we do in the PRP) gives you levers you can actually pull.

 

Recovery isn’t vague: lactate clears fastest with active recovery near ~80% of LT, SmO₂ re-oxygenation slopes and recovery half-times predict who can hit near-max again, and newer work shows SmO₂ is a strong predictor in high-intensity zones. 

At the same time, your glycolytic “gear” (vLamax) shapes how expensive each surge is: higher vLamax boosts punch but can choke sustainable power and steady-state tolerance—so balancing it against CP/VO₂max matters. 

 

Translate this to race day:

the crit rider who can restore W′ 5% faster after the last corner

the HYROX athlete whose SmO₂ rebounds quicker before the wall balls

the Olympic-distance triathlete who can reconstitute enough capacity to cover the late run surge

 

All win with physiology you can test, target, and retest, not motivational quotes. That’s exactly what the PRP quantifies: how big your anaerobic “spend,” how fast you get it back, and which system (central delivery, buffering, or local O₂ use) is capping you—so training stops guessing.

References The original W′-balance (W′bal) model: formalizes how W′ is spent above CP and reconstituted below it—i.e., why two athletes with the same CP can race very differently if one rebuilds W′ faster. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22382171 Comprehensive CP/W′ review: how CP/W′ underpin pacing, interval design, and tactical decisions across sports. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5371646 Reconstitution of W′ in trained vs. untrained cyclists: shows large between-athlete variability in how quickly W′ comes back—exactly what PRP is measuring https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7560916/ Bi-exponential W′ recovery kinetics: recovery isn’t a simple single time constant; modelling it correctly tightens prescription of work:recovery ratios. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00421-021-04874-3 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17461391.2023.2238679 PCr resynthesis drives repeat-sprint ability: classical biopsy work linking phosphocreatine recovery (an aerobic process) to performance decay across sprints. https://journals.physiology.org/doi/abs/10.1152/jappl.1996.80.3.876 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8964751 Faster VO₂ kinetics = less drop-off across repeats: athletes who get oxygen delivery/utilisation up faster slow down less over repeated sprints. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15976999 Active recovery near ~80% of LT clears lactate fastest: why “easy-but-not-too-easy” floats often beat full coasting between surges. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24739289 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02640414.2010.481721 SmO₂ (NIRS) as a practical recovery gauge: post-exercise reoxygenation slopes are intensity-sensitive and reliable—useful for detecting who’s ready to hit hard again. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11349675 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-023-01987-x vLamax strongly tracks glycolytic (‘punch’) performance: high vLamax boosts surge power, but at a cost to steady output—so you must balance it against CP/VO₂max. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40249379 HIIT vs. MICT for lactate clearance capacity: improving the machinery that clears/oxidises lactate changes how quickly you’re dangerous again between efforts. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11413624 Methodological cautions on W′ modeling: why you should test (and retest) with rigor if you actually want to use W′/recovery numbers for pacing. https://journals.humankinetics.com/view/journals/ijspp/16/11/article-p1561.xml

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